College Football 25 simulation: Will Utah State end on a high note by beating Colorado State?

Note: With EA Sports’ College Football 25 bringing college football back to the video game world, the Deseret News is simulating every Utah State game against an FBS opponent this season.
Utah State is finding its footing late in the season — the Aggies have won three of their past four games, and the last two wins have come by an average of 33 points.
In the final game of the regular season, Utah State will have a chance to play spoiler to Colorado State’s hopes of making the Mountain West title game.
The Rams are tied with UNLV at 5-1 in league play heading into their game with Utah State on Friday — with a win, Colorado State could potentially earn a spot in the MWC championship against host Boise State, though the Rams would likely need UNLV to lose, as the Rebels currently have a mathematical edge in numerous tiebreakers.
Can Utah State upset the Rams and impact the league race?
The Deseret News ran a simulation of Friday’s game on the EA Sports College Football 25 video game, and the Aggies and the Rams ended the regular season with a thrilling game.
There were a couple of ground rules in place: The simulation used 10-minute quarters and I let the computer simulate the game with no user interference.
Injuries and depth chart changes were also implemented.
This week, I inserted Bryson Barnes as the Aggies’ starting quarterback — he took over for an injured Spencer Petras last week in Utah State’s win over San Diego State.
The actual score: Utah State 41, San Diego State 20
College Football 25 simulation final score: Utah State 29, San Diego State 21
My analysis: While both the actual game and the simulation had the Aggies beating Aztecs, they went about the same result in different ways.
In the real game, Utah State overcame a 13-0 deficit by scoring 41 straight points to blow out San Diego State.
The simulation was closer, though Utah State built a 15-point fourth quarter before holding on.
Final score: Utah State 31, Colorado State 28
Key sequence: After the Aggies took an early 14-0 lead on two big plays (more on that in a minute), the Rams closed within 14-13 with 29 seconds until halftime on a 62-yard touchdown drive.
That still gave Barnes and the Utah State offense enough time to score.
On the first play of the ensuing drive, Barnes hit little-used wide receiver Kahanu Davis for a 42-yard gain to the Colorado State 26.
Following an incompletion, Barnes then found Josh Sterzer for a 17-yard pass to move the ball to the Colorado State 9.
Utah State called a timeout with 10 seconds left, then Barnes found Grant Page for a 9-yard touchdown with six seconds left in the half — a critical, fast scoring drive in what ended up being a one-score game.
How the simulation transpired: Things couldn’t have started much better for Utah State.
On the first play of the game, Barnes found Jack Hestera with a completion near midfield, and the wide receiver ran the next 50 yards untouched for a 75-yard touchdown just 10 seconds into the game.
The Aggies then stopped Colorado State on its side of the ball on the ensuing possession. On the punt, Jadon Pearson broke through and blocked the punt, then Pearson picked up the ball and returned it 39 yards for a touchdown to make it 14-0.
Over the next quarter and a half, Colorado State whittled its way back into the game with a pair of field goals, along with the aforementioned touchdown — a 7-yard Caleb Goodie reception on second and goal — with 29 seconds until halftime.
That set up the quick-strike touchdown that gave Utah State a 21-13 lead at the break.
The Aggies then picked up a big stop early in the third quarter, when Colorado State failed to pick up a fourth and inches at the Utah State 47.
The Aggies made them pay, as Kyrese White caught a 16-yard pass to the Colorado State 34, then Hestera made his second touchdown grab two plays later on a 32-yard score to make it 28-13.
The Rams later had a promising drive going, but Utah State’s defense came up with a turnover at the Utah State 42 — Max Alford punched the ball loose from a Colorado State ball carrier and Clyde Washington recovered.
Utah State turned that takeaway into three points, scoring on a 32-yard Tanner Cragun field goal early in the fourth to make it 31-13.
Colorado State tried to make it close, and still had time to do so.
The Rams scored touchdowns on their next two drives — possessions that took up time as Colorado State had to drive 80-plus yards on both.
The second touchdown drive was set up by a Barnes interception, and Colorado State made it a three-point game with a successful two-point conversion with 1:51 remaining.
Then on Utah State’s final possession, after Colorado State pulled within three, the Aggies went three and out, giving the Rams a chance to rally, though they were out of timeouts.
Colorado State got into Utah State territory, but a Cian Slone sack ended the last hope for the Rams, and delivered the Aggies one more victory.
Star players: Barnes threw for 342 yards, three touchdowns and one interception, while Hestera had four catches for 135 yards and two touchdowns.
Defensively, Slone led Utah State with 10 tackles and two sacks.
For Colorado State, Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi threw for 377 yards and three touchdowns, with Goodie as the primary pass catcher, at nine catches for 113 yards and a touchdown.
Key stats: Despite losing, Colorado State had superior total yardage numbers, finishing with 449 to Utah State’s 359.
Neither team was able to get much going with the run game, as Utah State ran for 17 yards on 15 carries, while the Rams had 72 on 25 carries.
The Aggies, though, had three of their four touchdowns come on chunk plays, including the blocked punt for a score.
My analysis: Given that Utah State has shown this kind of offensive firepower throughout the season, it’s believable that the Aggies could give Colorado State a game.
Will Utah State be able to beat the Rams, though? It would be the Aggies’ only win over a team with a winning record.